Fairfax's star has 951 yards through four games. Panorama's Brandon Hernandez is right behind him, and he's doing more with less.

Tru Warrior Casas is the L.A. City Section's leading rusher right now. I don't think he finishes the season that way.

My pick is Brandon Hernandez of Panorama. Here's why, and what could prove me wrong.

The Top of the Board

Casas has 951 rushing yards through four games, according to the MaxPreps City Section leaderboard. He has 11 touchdowns and averages nearly 238 yards a game.

Hernandez is second with 930 yards.

The gap is 21 yards. That's two carries.

Why I'm Picking Hernandez

Hernandez is getting more out of every run.

He averages 12.2 yards per carry. Casas averages 11.9. Hernandez has also scored 15 touchdowns to Casas's 11, and he has done it on four fewer carries.

That last part matters. If Hernandez gets a few more touches, he passes Casas. How many carries a back gets is up to the coaches, and it can change from one week to the next.

Why Casas Could Hold On

Casas has gone over 100 yards in every game this season, according to his MaxPreps profile.

He's also heating up. Eric Sondheimer had him at 663 yards through three games, and he has added 288 more since.

A back who keeps getting the ball and keeps getting better is hard to beat. If Fairfax keeps feeding him, Hernandez may run out of room.

Don't Forget the Rest of the Top Five

Ceasar Reyes, Garfield: 655 yards. He looks far behind, but he has played one fewer game than everyone else. His per-game average is close to the top two.

Jacob Southall, Taft: 515 yards. He got there on just 51 carries.

Levin Whitney, South East: 515 yards. Same total as Southall, but it took him 70 carries.

Wale Adeleye, Granada Hills Charter, is sixth with 513. He's two yards out of the top five.

A Big Breakout Year

This season is a major jump for Casas.

Last year, as a junior, he ran for 450 yards in 12 games. Most of his work came as a receiver, with 648 receiving yards. He has already more than doubled that rushing total in just four games.

He's also one of the busiest players in the City Section. High School On SI lists him as a running back, tight end, outside linebacker and punter.

Keep This in Mind

Four games is a small sample, and these numbers can change fast.

The stats are entered by coaches. They don't show how tough each opponent was, and they don't show whether a player sat out the end of a blowout.

Next Up: 1,000 Yards

Casas needs 49 yards to reach 1,000. That's about five carries for him.

His next chance comes on the road. Fairfax is scheduled to play at Granada Hills Charter on Sept. 18. That puts Casas on the same field as Adeleye, one of the top six rushers in the City Section.

What Would Prove Me Wrong

If Casas is still leading by 100 yards or more when the regular season ends, I got this one wrong, and I'll say so right here.

Who's your pick? Casas, Hernandez, or Reyes making a late run? Tell us in the comments. We'll check every pick when the regular season is over.

RepMax Media updates the City Section rushing leaders every week. Subscribe so you don't miss the Week 5 numbers, and follow every back on this list in the RepMax Intelligence database at repmax.io.